Key Takeaways from 4Q 2023 After an ugly third quarter and even start to the fourth quarter, markets regained their footing in November and finished the year strongly in positive territory. Consistent with how markets have traded the past 18 months, the pivot coincided with the Federal Reserve’s meeting on November 1. Following that meeting, […]
Key Takeaways from 3Q 2023 Financial markets had a challenging third quarter driven by the big three: inflation, Treasury yields, and oil. As the Federal Reserve (Fed) indicated, interest rates would stay higher for longer, resulting in the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond climbing to a 16-year high of 4.62%, and the S&P 500 Index trading […]
The summer stock market rally came to a halt in August. As volatility increased, the S&P 500 Index ended the month 1.6% lower than it began. The only S&P 500 sector ending the month higher was energy, while utilities brought up the rear with a 6.2% decline. I would describe last month’s downturn as broad-based […]
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it […]
Inflation Inflation continues to fall steadily from the 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022 to a more modest 4.0% in May 2023. E Energy prices, driven by the Russia-Ukraine war, which were the most significant contributor to inflation last summer, are now the largest contributor to disinflation. Core goods, including food prices, are improving […]
The most telegraphed recession in history must wait a little longer before coming to fruition. Economic data through the first half of the year remained mixed, with the labor market and service industries remaining strong. However, manufacturing is experiencing some weakness paired with still sticky inflation. Despite the mixed messages, stocks did not waiver much, […]
Looking at just the S&P 500 Index, the month of May appears boring since the index increased by only 0.4%. However, about one-quarter of trading days in May saw the index move up or down by over 1%, and there was a difference of almost 20% between the month’s best and worst-performing sectors. May was […]
The U.S. debt ceiling has circled the news for months, and now we are approaching a more critical scenario. The debt ceiling is the amount of money the U.S. government is authorized to borrow, which is set by Congress. Think of the debt ceiling as a credit limit on a credit card. Raising the debt […]